Let's review some history. Paul Konerko hit 40+ homers in back to back years. At age 30 he received a 5 year contract for I believe about $75 million (doesn't sound like so much now, I know). He hit 35 home runs that year. But starting the next year, at age 31, his batting average dropped big time and he has averaged 26 homers, which is not terrible obviously but a little low for what is supposed to be a slugging 1B. He has been limited/ hindered somewhat by nagging injuries which have limited his playing time a little (has missed over 10 games each year of his contract and has been on the DL) and are the likely cause for some of his lost power. When healthy he is still a productive player but the odds of that happening for a full season, forget about multiple seasons, is not too high. He is only 34. We can only imagine how things will progress in the coming years. However, his contract was not a complete bust and waste of money like the others. (Good move by the White Sox to only give him five years which is through his age 34 season.)
The reason Konerko is on the list is because he was the best example of someone who has not been a complete bust yet has not lived up to his contract due to nagging problems. We must consider the fact that Ryan Howard will not completely break down but will have nagging injuries and sapped power to the point that though he is mostly on the field, he will homer in the the mid-20s. I think that even if he would perform like that, his contract of $1 million per home run would not nearly be worth it.More likely, considering the fact that a "slim and in shape" Ryan Howard still weighs more than 40 lb more than Konerko, is that Howard busts. But maybe he will perform decently with just minor nagging problems and above average performance. Either way, the odds of Howard living up to his contract and being worth it from age 32-37 is not too high.
What do you think? Feel free to disagree. Just post it in comments (we could use some).
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